GTX260 216SP beats the 4870, GTX260 192SP is just under the 4870, then 9800GTX+ is just above 4850. At least that's what I've always gone by. A GTX260 should really still be fine, especially if its the 216SP version. If it's the 192SP version, they apparently overclock better, so whack out afterburner and get clocking.
Only need for an upgrade atm is if you're struggling with current titles or you're looking at going into something like 3DVision.
Edit: Also worth noting the HD6000 series is just round the corner and so is Sandy Bridge from intel.
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